How we predict matches
Every tip on 9jaTips comes from the same steps, applied the same way to every fixture – a Premier League derby or an NPFL Sunday game.
1. Team ratings
Each team gets an attack rating and a defence rating from about a year of results. Recent games count more than old ones, and goals against strong sides count more than goals against weak ones. Ratings are refreshed every night.
2. Projected goals
For each match, the two ratings plus home advantage give a projected number of goals for each team – say 1.7 for the home side and 0.9 for the visitors. Home advantage is set league by league; in the NPFL it is much bigger than in Europe.
3. A probability for every outcome
From the projected goals we work out how likely every possible score is. Adding up the right scores gives the chance of a home win, a draw, over 2.5 goals, both teams scoring, a half-time result or any correct score – so all our numbers for one game always agree with each other.
4. Choosing the tip
The tip is the market with the best balance of probability and price. We skip prices that are too short to be worth it (under about 1.15). Each tip shows its chance as a percentage, so you can see how sure we are.
5. Banker, accumulator and must-win teams
The banker is the strongest single of the day. The accumulator and the 2, 3 and 5 odds slips add top tips until they reach their target odds, never two legs from the same match. Must-win teams are the results our model rates highest – still never certain.
6. Settlement
Tips lock at kick-off and settle on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time – extra time and penalties do not count, and postponed games are void. Every result goes onto the track record.
What no model can know
Late injuries, red cards, weather and plain luck. A 70% tip still loses three times in ten. Use our numbers as information, keep stakes small and level, and read responsible gambling if betting stops being fun. 18+ only.