Defensor Sporting vs Penarol prediction: Under 3.5 goals
We see 2.4 goals, which stays under 3.5. That gives this tip a 76% chance. Penarol have been up and down (DLD). At 1.25 it is short – better as one leg of an accumulator.
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Odds board
Bookmaker odds · our chance under each · TIP = our pickMatch result
Double chance
Goals 1.5
Goals 2.5
Goals 3.5
Both teams to score
Half-time result
Odds from our data feed when this page was built – check your bookmaker before you bet. Where no bookmaker price exists we show our fair odds (100 ÷ chance). 18+.
Match notes
by Ade Ola & the 9jaTips deskThe big picture
The visitors are the team to beat: Penarol at 62%, Defensor Sporting only 18%. In the Uruguay Primera División Apertura table, Defensor Sporting sit 13th (12 pts) and Penarol 5th (22 pts).
Form check
Recent run for Defensor Sporting: W D L L L L – one win in six. Last time out they beat Progreso 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Penarol arrive with one win from their last six games (D L D L D W). Last time out they drew with Wanderers 1–1 at home. The worry is at the other end – only 0.5 goals per game.
Past meetings
From their last 2 meetings: Defensor Sporting won 0, Penarol won 1 and 1 ended level – 2.0 goals a game. Most recently (May 2026): Defensor Sporting 0–2 Penarol.
Goals outlook
We expect around 2.4 goals (Defensor Sporting 0.7, Penarol 1.7). Goal markets are finely balanced – over 2.5 44%, GG 51%.
Our call
We are backing Under 3.5 goals – 76% in our model, around 1.25 with the bookmakers. Most likely score: Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. 18+ – stake only what you can afford.
Defensor Sporting
last 6- W@ Progreso2–01 Nov
- Dv Racing Montevideo3–324 Oct
- L@ Boston River0–117 Oct
- Lv Cerro2–310 Oct
- L@ Albion FC2–33 Oct
- Lv Plaza Colonia0–130 Sep
Penarol
last 6- Dv Wanderers1–131 Oct
- Lv Atletico Torque0–227 Oct
- D@ Juventud0–024 Oct
- L@ Liverpool Montevideo0–118 Oct
- Dv Progreso1–110 Oct
- W@ Racing Montevideo1–04 Oct
Past meetings
Full head-to-head →- 24 May 2026Defensor Sporting0–2Penarol
- 4 May 2026Penarol1–1Defensor Sporting
Primera División Apertura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the 9jaTips prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We tip Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance in our model, with bookmaker odds around 1.25.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our model has Defensor Sporting at 18%, the draw at 20% and Penarol at 62%.
What is the correct score prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Our most likely score is Defensor Sporting 0–1 Penarol.
Will there be goals in Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.4 goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Penarol?
Monday 16 November 2026, 00:00 Nigerian time (WAT), at Estadio Luis Franzini – Primera División Apertura.