Value bets yesterday

Yesterday's value picks

38 selections where the bookmaker odds are bigger than they should be, at average odds of 2.33. The best of them: Angola U23 vs Congo U23 – Draw at 3.42, which we rate at 54% when the odds suggest only 29%.

At odds around 2.33 you need roughly 43% winners to break even. Last 30 days: 1,708 of 3,922 won (44%). Value works over many bets, not in one day.

How to play value picks

• Use small, equal stakes – about 1–2% of your betting money.
• Play them as singles; combining them adds a lot of risk.
• If the odds have dropped, the value is gone – skip it.
• Losing runs of five or more are normal with value picks.

What makes a value spot

Every price implies a probability: 2.50 is about 40% (100 ÷ 2.50) before margin. When our model has the same outcome at 46% or more, the bookmaker is paying over fair – and repeatedly taking prices above fair is how an edge turns into profit over time.

This list sits apart from the main predictions because its hit rate is lower. The results record logs both so you can compare them.