Value bets today
Side-by-side: the bookmaker price and our fair price for each selection. Listed here are the ones where the bookmaker pays clearly more than fair – a lower hit rate, bigger returns, a strategy for small level stakes.
NigeriaNPFL1X2Our tip
AfricaAfrica Cup Of Nations Qualification1X2Our tip
EuropeUEFA Nations League1X2Our tip
ArgentinaSuper Copa1X2Our tip
UruguayPrimera División Apertura1X2Our tip
North & Central AmericaCONCACAF Nations League1X2Our tip
MexicoLiga De Expansión MX1X2Our tip
MongoliaPremier League1X2Our tip
UkrainePersha Liga1X2Our tip
UkraineDruha Liga1X2Our tip
WorldFriendlies Clubs1X2Our tip
PolandIII Liga Group 31X2Our tip
WorldFriendlies1X2Our tip
Saudi-ArabiaDivision 21X2Our tip
EgyptSecond League1X2Our tip
SerbiaPrva Liga1X2Our tip
EuropeUEFA U21 Championship Qualification1X2Our tip
PolandII Liga East1X2Our tip
AlgeriaLigue 11X2Our tip
Denmark2. Division1X2Our tip
NetherlandsTweede Divisie1X2Our tip
GermanyOberliga Hamburg1X2Our tip
SpainSegunda División1X2Our tip
Today's value picks
58 selections where the bookmaker odds are bigger than they should be, at average odds of 2.25. The best of them: Poland U21 vs Norway U21 – Draw at 3.60, which we rate at 53% when the odds suggest only 28%.
At odds around 2.25 you need roughly 44% winners to break even. Value works over many bets, not in one day.
How to play value picks
- Use small, equal stakes – about 1–2% of your betting money.
- Play them as singles; combining them adds a lot of risk.
- If the odds have dropped, the value is gone – skip it.
- Losing runs of five or more are normal with value picks.
What makes a value spot
Every price implies a probability: 2.50 is about 40% (100 ÷ 2.50) before margin. When our model has the same outcome at 46% or more, the bookmaker is paying over fair – and repeatedly taking prices above fair is how an edge turns into profit over time.
This list sits apart from the main predictions because its hit rate is lower. The results record logs both so you can compare them.
Frequently asked questions
What makes the list?
Probability × price of at least 1.06 – a 6%+ edge over fair – at prices from 1.60 to 4.50.
Do edge picks win more?
No – they win less often than main picks. The aim is profit over a long run of small, level stakes.
Why so many draws?
Bookmakers often price the draw long in tight games; when the model rates it well above the implied probability, it shows here.